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Triad Retrospective Scripting

Triad Retrospective Scripting (TRuSt) is a tool for forecasting that allows to find and describe possible big social system change scenarios from the point of view of a designer that exists in an expected future
“We are way too adult to change countries, so we will have to CHANGE the one we have…”
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In the core of TRuSt methodic lays the assumption that using participant’s individual notions about current situation and possible future you can build main trajectories of development of a research object in three probable scenarios: negative, tendentious and positive. Also you can define possible transition points between these trajectories.

“Different for the sake of common” is the basic principle of work, manifested, amongst other things, in the abbreviation TRuSt that implicates the refusal from individual position for the sake of generation of a group vision.

Second assumption that lays in the core of TRuSt is that current society is the system close to a chaos-system: it’s sensitive to original terms (the effect of a “butterfly wing”); has a quality of topologic branding (every topic in the state of expansion overlaps with any other topic); trajectory of topics’ movement are solid everywhere (without raptures and bounces).

Hence – to a society (as a chaotic system) it’s possible to apply the concept of attractors – an abundance of points system gravitates to with time. At the same time the change of attractors influences systems behavior in general.

TRuSt method allows us to define those attractors. And also – to define possible changes in trajectory on the whole system’s movement in case of change in one or more attractors.

It’s important to understand that TRuSt works with simplified social models with wide allowances in input parameters.

Work according TRuSt method consists of three stages of preparation and final analysis:

  • Defining key topics of the system (dimensions).
  • Describing images of future: the most probable (tendentious) and extreme (improbable) positions: positive and negative.
  • Description of scenarios (orbits) of topic system’s movement from the point of view of an observer that exists in one out of three possible futures.

Final analysis is the comparison of three trajectories and definition of key points of transition from one scenario to another one.

First three stages are basically the base triad: reflection – dreaming – activity.

Every stage of work consists out of three measures: individual vision – combined ranked vision – integrated vision.

At first measure of every stage every participant presents his subjective opinion about the stage.

At second measure all subjective opinions are collected and dominants become apparent.

At third measure participants collectively integrate the received amount of opinions – they create integrated vision of a question of this stage.

For manifestation of a collective vision TRuSt uses the same basic approaches as in Hellinger’s system constellations: phenomenological approach (following what manifests during work, without previous conceptions and following interpretations) and system approach (reviewing of a declared subject and object of work in the context of interrelations that an object of scripting has with other objects of a big social system).

Work participants – people of different age and professional orientation that belong to different social group. Groups are combined based on the principle of social activity and deep absorption into research subject’s information field.

During the first stage work participants define key topics (parameters of system’s description) of scripting. It has been discovered on practice that optimal number of topics in uneven – not less than five and not more that nine. Amount that is less than five gives out an image that is way too simplified and the one that is more than nine is way too big to hold the attentions. One of the topics is being the key one, and other parameters of a systems are situated around it (in a systems of coordinates personal-universal; material-spiritual). For example, for scripting of objects such as “country” the bare minimum of topics are: culture; education; society; domestic policy; natural resources; economy; geopolitics. At the same time for a country that has its own subjectivity, parameter (topic) “domestic policy” is the key one and it ties all other topics together.

At the second stage work participants move into designed future (preplanned “farness”, away from the current moment) and describe the situation (parameter by parameter). First they create descriptions of a perfect positive and perfect negative future. Then – a description of the most probable future (in participants’ opinion). As the result three cloud description of three possible futures are created.

During the third stage participants, while inside one of this cloud, are “remembering” how the object of design was changing from designed past (real present) to designed present (expected future). At this stage of work topic-parameters become vectors of change and at the same time keeping interrelations and mutual influence.

Visually scenarios can be presented both as a n-vector linear system (vectors in time, “arrows”) and as a series of images of n-dimensional “wind rose”, where every axis corresponds with one of parameters.

At the final stage of work they carry out the overlaying of three n-vector scenarios (or linear n-vector arrows) and define zones of similarities (closeness) of every situation to every parameter (system’s dimension).